GLOBAL NUCLEAR ORDER

03 Jan GLOBAL NUCLEAR ORDER

UPSC MAINS SYLLABUS GS2 PAPER: Effect of Policies and Politics of Developed and Developing Countries on India’s interests

WHY IN THE NEWS? 

1. With increasing polarisation in Russia – USA relations on the issue of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war & subsequent eastward expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), the Global Nuclear Order established through various treaties during and post Cold war period has come under severe tension.
2.  In this light, India’s Nuclear policy and its role as “balancing power” in the world holds tremendous importance.

ESTABLISHMENT OF GLOBAL NUCLEAR ORDER (GNO): 

1. Under the “Manhattan project”, with efforts of Robert Oppenheimer, USA became the first country to possess Nuclear weapons in 1945 during the World War II period. 
2. The devastating effects of Nuclear weapons became known to the world after its use in the bombings of the Hiroshima & Nagasaki, Japan by USA to provide deathblow to the war.
3. As Russia (erstwhile USSR) & USA entered into the Cold war period (1945-1989), a nuclear weapon race ensued with both nations trying to outdone each other by developing ballistic missiles.
4.  Following the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, when US & Russia came perilously close to launching a nuclear war, both U.S. President John F. Kennedy and Russia’s General Secretary Nikita Khrushchev understood two political realities:
   1. First, as the two nuclear superpowers, they needed bilateral mechanisms to prevent tensions from escalating to the nuclear level.
   2. And, second, nuclear weapons are dangerous and, therefore, their spread should be curbed.
5. It was this convergence on the issue of curtailing the spread of Nuclear weapons which created the Global Nuclear Order (GNO).

GLOBAL NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT POLICY: 

1. The hotline established between Russia & USA in 1963 gradually developed into nuclear risk reduction centres.
2.  It was followed by arms control negotiations as the two nuclear superpowers sought to manage their nuclear arms race and maintain strategic stability.
3.  The Geneva Convention 1965 to curb the spread of nuclear weapons was followed by the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) in 1968. 
4. The NPT has proved to be successful as despite dire predictions of more than 20 countries possessing nuclear weapons by the 1970s, (there were actually 5 in 1968 – the U.S., U.S.S.R., U.K., France, and China), only 4 countries have since gone nuclear, i.e., India, Israel, North Korea, and Pakistan.
5. Further, in 1969 SALT-1 (Strategic Arms Limitation Talks) concluded with both sides agreeing not to build new Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) silos.
6. However, such arms control did not end the U.S. – U.S.S.R. nuclear race; as in fact, their arsenals grew from 28,000 bombs in 1962 to over 65,000 bombs in the early 1980s.

EVOLUTION OF INDIA’S NUCLEAR POLICY: 

1. India’s Nuclear policy embarked under the “Dual Intent strategy” of First Prime Minister JL Nehru & Homi J. Bhabha.
2.  The Atomic Energy Commission (AEC) was established under Atomic Energy Act 1948 with Homi J. Bhabha as the Chairman.
3. After Indo-China War 1962 and development of Nuclear weapons by China in 1964, it became imperative for India to develop its own arsenal to ensure National security.
4. Thus, India refused to sign NPT in 1970 on the following grounds: 
   1. The NPT defines “nuclear weapons states” as those that tested devices before 1967, which means India cannot ever be one
   2. No fixed timelines have been mentioned for disarmament
   3. NPT is unfair treaty as nuclear weapon states have no obligation to give them up while non-nuclear states are not allowed to equip themselves
5. In 1974, India conducted its first nuclear test known as Smiling Buddha under Srimati Indira Gandhi.
6. Subsequently , India conducted its 2nd nuclear test called as Operation Shakti in 1998 under Shri Atal Bihari Vajpayee and declared itself as “de-facto” Nuclear state. 
7. Due to this Internationally not sanctioned test, India was ousted from the Nuclear Supplier Group (NSG), which seek to prevent nuclear proliferation by controlling the export of materials, equipment and technology that can be used to manufacture nuclear weapons.
8.  India finally managed to have some relief when the US relented and agreed to sign a civil nuclear deal with India in 2008 also known as the 123 Agreement. 

Under this, India signed a civil-military separation plan and India-IAEA safeguard agreement. In return, US diplomacy helped us to get NSG waiver. 

INDIA’S CURRENT NUCLEAR DOCTRINE: 

In the year 2003, India adopted a Nuclear doctrine based on “NO FIRST USE” (NFU) policy.  Certain key aspects of the draft were:

1. India would not initiate a nuclear attack on any country.
2. India would not use nuclear weapons on non-nuclear states.
3. India’s nuclear arsenal will be used for the sole purpose of defence and would serve as a deterrent against external nuclear attacks.
4. The retaliatory 2nd strike to a first nuclear attack would be massive and would inflict unacceptable damage on opponent. 
5. India would adopt the Nuclear triad model to develop capability of launching nuclear attacks on 3 fronts i.e. land, air, and water. 

RISING ISSUES AFFECTING GNO: 

Growing polarisation between Russia & USA due to expansion of NATO has brought the initiative of Nuclear Disarmament to a standstill:

1. For example, in 2002, the U.S. withdrew from the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty & Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty on grounds that Russia was violating it.
2. The only remaining agreement, New START, will lapse in 2026 as its verification meetings were suspended during the COVID19 outbreak and never resumed. 
3.  Russia de-ratified the CTBT to bring it on a par with the U.S., raising concerns about the resumption of nuclear testing.
4. More recently, the nuclear submarine AUKUS deal (Australia, U.S., U.K.) with Australia, a nonnuclear weapon state, is raising concerns in the NPT community
5. With China developing its own Nuclear capable missiles & submarines, it has become imperative for India to revive & restore Global Nuclear Order (GNO).

WAY FORWARD: 

 Moreover, Russian nuclear sabre rattling to warn the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the U.S. against escalation in Ukraine has revived nuclear concerns. The old definitions of strategic stability no longer hold and thus it is important for India to ensure that its “balancing role” between two extreme blocs bear fruits to curb the use & production of Nuclear weapons. 

Download plutus ias current affairs eng med 03th Jan 2024

UPSC MAINS 2024 PRACTISE QUESTIONS: 

Q: In the context of the recent developments in Global Nuclear Order, critically analyse India’s Nuclear policy. Also provide suggestive measures to restore the “disarmament policy” in increasingly polarised world. (15M, 250 Words) 

Suyash Rai

I have appeared in Mains 2022 & 23 of UPSC CSE exam. I also guide students regarding their NEET & JEE preparations.
Working as Content developer at Plutus IAS since 2023.