The paradox of India’s global rise

04 May The paradox of India’s global rise

THIS ARTICLE COVERS ‘DAILY CURRENT AFFAIRS’ AND THE TOPIC DETAILS OF “The paradox of India’s global rise”. THIS TOPIC IS RELEVANT IN THE “International relations” SECTION OF THE UPSC CSE EXAM.

Context

This article appeared in ‘The Hindu’ newspaper, written by Happymon Jacob, who writes very frequently on the important topics related to India’s foreign policy highlighting the paradox which is emerging in the South Asian region in respect of changing geopolitical realities.

 

More about the issue

India’s ascension on the global stage has been accompanied by a paradoxical decline in its influence within South Asia. In contrast to its significant sway during the Cold War era and when compared with China’s burgeoning dominance today, India’s regional power has declined consderably. This decline, while not absolute, is a consequence of various external factors and could gradually erode India’s standing on the world stage.

Ironically, some of the very factors contributing to India’s global eminence are also responsible for its waning influence in its immediate neighborhood. For instance, the void left by America’s retreat from the region has allowed China to expand its presence, to India’s detriment. However, this shift has compelled the United States and its allies to seek closer ties with India to counterbalance China’s influence, thereby bolstering India’s global relevance.

India’s ascent on the global stage is attributed to its increasing absolute power and strategic alignments forged with key players in the  international arena. Conversely, the decline of India’s regional clout is shaped by the interplay of relative power dynamics and the geopolitical strategies pursued by smaller nations in the region. Hence, disregarding the nuanced balancing acts undertaken by these smaller regional powers in favor of solely concentrating on great power dynamics could prove detrimental.

 

The skirmishes with China

• Border skirmishes: China’s assertive behavior along the disputed border regions, leading to periodic clashes and standoffs, such as in Doklam (2017) and the Galwan Valley (2020).
• Geopolitical encroachment: China’s expanding presence and influence in India’s neighborhood, particularly through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), raising concerns about strategic encirclement.
• Regional competition: China’s deepening ties with South Asian nations, including Pakistan, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh, challenging India’s traditional sphere of influence and fostering regional competition.
• Military modernization: China’s rapid military advancements, including in missile technology and naval capabilities, prompted India to reassess its defense strategies and bolster its own military capabilities.
• Security concerns: China’s growing assertiveness casting a shadow over India’s security calculus, compelling New Delhi to navigate a delicate balance between engagement and safeguarding its strategic interests.
• Diplomatic tensions: Friction in diplomatic relations, with India seeking to assert its interests while engaging with China on various bilateral and multilateral platforms.
• Economic competition: Competition with China in economic spheres, including trade and investment, driving India to seek alternative partnerships and diversify its economic ties.

 

Increasing Chinese influence in South Asia 

• Belt and Road Initiative (BRI): China’s flagship infrastructure development project extends into South Asia, facilitating connectivity and economic integration among regional countries. However, it also increases China’s influence in the region, potentially undermining India’s traditional dominance.
• Economic investments: China’s significant investments in South Asian countries, including in infrastructure projects and industries, enhance its economic clout and leverage in the region, challenging India’s economic partnerships.
• Military cooperation: China’s expanding military cooperation with South Asian nations, such as Pakistan, through arms sales, joint exercises, and defense cooperation agreements, raises security concerns for India and affects its strategic calculations.
• Diplomatic engagements: China’s proactive diplomacy in South Asia, including through high-level visits, bilateral agreements, and multilateral forums, aims to strengthen its political influence and undermine India’s regional leadership, leading to diplomatic competition and tensions.
• Border disputes: China’s assertive stance on territorial disputes, such as in the Himalayan region, can lead to border tensions and military standoffs, directly impacting India’s territorial integrity and national security.

 

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What should be done?

To effectively address the challenges posed by China’s growing influence in the region, New Delhi needs to adopt a Proactive approach and reassess its traditional perceptions of South Asia. Ignoring the shifting geopolitical landscape will only exacerbate the situation.

• Instead of attempting to directly compete with China on every front, India should capitalize on its unique strengths and advantages. It’s impractical to match China’s might in every aspect, and pursuing such a strategy would be futile. Instead, India should focus on leveraging its traditional strengths and historical ties in the region to forge new and innovative engagement strategies.
• One such approach could involve reclaiming and revitalizing India’s historical and cultural connections, such as its rich Buddhist heritage. By emphasizing shared cultural ties and historical legacies, India can foster deeper connections with its neighbors and enhance its soft power in the region.
• India faces considerable challenges in its continental strategy, while its maritime domain offers abundant opportunities for trade enhancement, participation in minilateral initiatives, and the formation of issue-based coalitions. One potential approach involves integrating India’s smaller South Asian neighbors into discussions and initiatives within the broader Indo-Pacific framework. 
• India, along with its partners like the U.S., Japan, Australia, the European Union, and others, should explore ways to involve countries such as Sri Lanka, the Maldives, and Bangladesh in the Indo-Pacific strategy. This can reduce their reliance on China’s regional initiatives and capitalize on the strategic advantages that India and its partners possess over China in the Indo-Pacific region.
• Unlike during the Cold War era, India is now more receptive to the presence of external powers in its neighborhood. This shift signifies a willingness to collaborate with friendly external partners in both the Indian Ocean and South Asia to tackle shared challenges within the region. 

Finally, To uphold its influence in the region, New Delhi should capitalize on its soft power assets creatively. An effective strategy involves promoting informal interactions between political and civil society figures from India and neighboring South Asian countries. Encouraging such informal contacts fosters dialogue and understanding across borders, strengthening relationships and influence.  By leveraging its soft power in these ways, India can maintain its influence in the region and contribute to stability and cooperation among South Asian nations.