17 Aug The message from the IPCC report (The Hindu, GS-3)
The message from the IPCC report (The Hindu, GS-3)
Context:- The Working Group I of IPCC contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) having titled ‘Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis, talks about global warming at length.
Findings of the report:-
- Global surface temperature is now higher by 1.07oC since the pre-industrial era which shows the anthropogenic contributions.
- The impact of climate change on the atmosphere, oceans, and land is because of human origin and this impact is picking up pace.
- It is a high hitting fact that there is no part of the inhabited world that is now untouched by the impact of global warming.
- Aerosols contribute to reducing the impact of warming by other greenhouse gases which can be estimated to almost a third.
- Methane reduction is particularly significant only as part of the big game as the drastic reduction of aerosols actually leads to an increase in warming.
- The value of equilibrium climate sensitivity
- Climate sensitivity is the measure of how a specified increase in carbon dioxide concentration translates into long term surface temperature rise.
- This climate sensitivity is in the range of 2.5oC to 4.0oC, with a best estimate of 3 oC, compared to the Fifth Assessment Report range of 1.5oC to 4.5oC.
- There will be an increase in climate extremes due to global warming, with heat waves, extreme rainfall events and occurrence of extreme sea levels all expected to intensify and be more frequent.
- The extraordinary disasters from the global North, unprecedented rain and flooding, including massive forest fires, and record heat.
Restrict cumulative emissions
- This report suggests that air pollution reduction and steep climate change mitigation are not complementary goals but require independent efforts over the short and medium term.
- This is most important as this report claims of such a linkage have been used to argue that India, for instance, must cease the use of coal immediately.
- The IPCC report clearly states that reaching net zero was not the determining factor for the world to limit itself to a 1.5oC , or 2oC, or indeed any specific temperature increase.
- The report is also gives the suggestion that it is the cumulative emissions in reaching net zero that determine the temperature rise
Little cheer for Global South
- Our world is set to cross the 1.5oC limit within 10 to15 years.
- Three big emitters which are the U.S., the European Union and China must enhance and have their deep cuts in the emission, even the prospect of a mild overshoot of the limit followed by a later decline is likely to be foregon
- India cannot save the world from the consequences of global warming because the people who should have taken the responsibility have already shed it.
- India has contributed less than 5% of global cumulative emissions to date, with per capita annual emissions a third of the global average.
- India is also the only nation among the G20 nations with INDC commitment under the Paris Agreement that are even 2oC warming compatible.
- India must widen its space urgently to cope with the future, one where global temperature increase may be closer to 2oC.
- India’s annual emissions rest on 3 billion tonnes in carbon dioxide equivalent terms such as the total cessation of emissions for the next 30 years.
- Focusing on definite cumulative emission targets by keeping equity and historical responsibility into consideration.
- Immediate emission reductions by the developed countries with phaseout dates for all fossil fuels
- Massive investment in new technologies such as renewable, eclectic vehicle etc and their deployment
- A more serious push to the mobilization of adequate climate finance is the need of the hour.
Source:- PIB, The Hindu