BELOW-NORMAL MONSOON RAINFALL July Rainfall Deficit Touches Nearly 40%

03 Jul BELOW-NORMAL MONSOON RAINFALL July Rainfall Deficit Touches Nearly 40%

Posted at 03 Jul 2026 in Current Affairs, Daily Current Affairs for UPSC, UPSC Current Affairs by Suhani 0 Comments

0 Likes

40%

JULY RAINFALL DEFICIT

55%

NET SOWN AREA IS RAIN-FED

75–80%

OF ANNUAL RAINFALL FROM SW MONSOON

📘 GS SYLLABUS RELEVANCE

🎯 Where This Fits

• Prelims: Indian Geography, Indian Economy, Environment & Ecology, Agriculture, Disaster Management

• Mains GS-III: Agriculture, Climate Change, Food Security, Disaster Management, Economy

• Essay: Climate Change, Sustainable Development, Agriculture

WHY IS IT IN NEWS?

As per The Hindu, India is set to receive below-normal rainfall in July — the deficit has already touched ~40% in the early part of the month, a spell IMD classifies as ~~Deficient~~.

Since July is the most crucial month of the Southwest Monsoon, a prolonged deficit can hit agriculture, water availability, power generation, inflation, and overall economic growth. This matters because ~~55% of India’s net sown area~~ is still rain-dependent despite irrigation expansion.

🌧️ SOUTHWEST MONSOON — SNAPSHOT


Share of India’s annual rainfall	≈ 75–80%
Onset over Kerala	~ 1 June
Covers entire India	~ 8 July
Withdrawal begins	~ 17 September
Complete withdrawal	By October
Peak Kharif rainfall window	July & August

📊 IMD RAINFALL CLASSIFICATION (VS LPA)


Large Excess	+60% or more
Excess	+20% to +59%
Normal	−19% to +19%
Deficient ← current status	−20% to −59%
Large Deficient	−60% or below

⚠️ Key Takeaway

• A 40% shortfall places the current spell squarely in the ~~Deficient~~ category — the second-most severe classification on the IMD scale.

🗓️ WHY JULY RAINFALL MATTERS

July is the backbone of India’s agricultural calendar. It determines:

● Sowing of Kharif crops

● Groundwater recharge

● Reservoir storage

● Drinking water availability

● Hydroelectric power generation

● Rural income & food production

● Inflation trajectory

💡 Remember

• Even if rainfall improves later, ~~delayed sowing often reduces yields~~ — timing matters as much as total volume.

WHY HAS RAINFALL TURNED DEFICIENT?

● Weak Monsoon Trough — remains north / shifts away from ideal position, cutting rainfall over central India

● Break Monsoon Conditions — the monsoon weakens for several days, causing dry spells over large areas

● Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) — a moving tropical cloud/rainfall system; its unfavourable phase suppresses Indian rainfall

● Indian Ocean Conditions — sea-surface temperature & circulation patterns influence moisture transport

● Climate Change — rising temperatures increase extreme rainfall events, long dry spells, and irregular monsoon distribution

🌾 IMPACT ON AGRICULTURE

▍ Delayed Sowing

● Farmers delay sowing of rice, soybean, cotton, pulses, and maize

▍ Lower Crop Yield

● Insufficient soil moisture hurts germination and crop growth

▍ Increased Cost

● Extra irrigation, diesel pumps and fertilizers raise cultivation costs

▍ Crop Failure

● Continued dry spells can cause ~~significant crop losses~~

💧 IMPACT ON WATER RESOURCES

● Reduced reservoir storage and groundwater recharge

● Falling levels in rivers and lakes

● Stress on urban water supply

🚱 Watch Out

• Many cities may face ~~drinking-water shortages~~ if reservoirs aren’t adequately replenished before withdrawal.

📉 IMPACT ON ECONOMY & INFLATION

▍ Economy

● Lower agricultural output → reduced rural purchasing power

● Lower FMCG demand → slower GDP growth

● Higher government expenditure on relief measures

▍ Inflation

● Food inflation rises from lower output of vegetables, pulses, cereals, fruits

● Higher food prices may force the ~~central bank to stay cautious on interest rates~~

⚡ IMPACT ON ENERGY & ENVIRONMENT

▍ Energy

● Hydroelectric generation declines with lower reservoir inflow

● Thermal power demand rises → higher coal consumption & emissions

▍ Environment

● Reduced groundwater recharge; higher forest-fire risk

● Drying wetlands, biodiversity stress, wildlife migration, soil degradation

🌱 Silver Lining — Deficit ≠ Drought

• Efficient water management and improved irrigation planning

• Better adoption of micro-irrigation

• Promotion of drought-resistant crops

• Rising public awareness of water conservation

🏛️ GOVERNMENT MEASURES


IMD	Monsoon forecasting, early warning systems, weather advisories
Ministry of Agriculture	Crop advisories, contingency crop plans, seed distribution
PM Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY)	Insurance support against weather-related crop losses
PM Krishi Sinchai Yojana (PMKSY)	Drip & sprinkler irrigation — ‘Per Drop More Crop’
Jal Shakti Abhiyan	Water conservation, rainwater harvesting, groundwater recharge

🚧 PERSISTING CHALLENGES

● High dependence on rain-fed farming

● Depleting groundwater tables

● Low irrigation coverage in several regions

● Climate uncertainty & erratic rainfall patterns

● Fragmented landholdings

● Limited crop diversification

🚀 WAY FORWARD

● Improve Irrigation — expand micro-irrigation, canal networks, solar pumps

● Climate-Resilient Agriculture — drought-resistant seeds, crop diversification, millets, pulses

● Strengthen Weather Forecasting — improve village-level advisories

● Water Conservation — rainwater harvesting, watershed development, aquifer recharge

● Better Reservoir Management — integrated river-basin planning

● Farmer Awareness — scientific, forecast-based sowing decisions

🔁 Recurring UPSC Themes

• Indian monsoon variability • El Niño & La Niña • Climate change impacts

• Water resource management • Agricultural reforms • Drought mitigation

✏️ UPSC PRELIMS PRACTICE QUESTIONS

Q1. With reference to the Long Period Average (LPA) used by the India Meteorological Department, consider the following statements:

1. It represents the average rainfall over a 30-year period.

2. Rainfall between −19% and +19% of the LPA is classified as “Normal.”

3. Rainfall deficiency is measured against the previous year’s rainfall.

A. 1 and 2 only B. 2 and 3 only C. 1 and 3 only D. 1, 2 and 3

✔ Answer: A

Q2. Consider the following impacts of a prolonged rainfall deficit in July:

4. Delayed sowing of Kharif crops

5. Lower reservoir storage

6. Reduced hydroelectric power generation

7. Immediate increase in Rabi crop production

A. 1 and 2 only B. 1, 2 and 3 only C. 2, 3 and 4 only D. 1, 2, 3 and 4

✔ Answer: B

🖋️ UPSC GS PAPER III — MAINS QUESTION (15 MARKS)

“India’s increasing rainfall variability poses a serious challenge to agricultural sustainability and economic stability. Examine the causes and consequences of below-normal monsoon rainfall. Suggest policy measures to enhance India’s climate resilience.”

📝 Answer Framework

• Introduction: Importance of the Southwest Monsoon to India’s agriculture and economy

• Body — Causes: Monsoon dynamics, MJO, ocean-atmosphere interactions, climate change

• Body — Impacts: Agriculture, water, inflation, energy, environment

• Body — Government Initiatives: PMKSY, PMFBY, IMD advisories, Jal Shakti Abhiyan

• Body — Reforms: Micro-irrigation, climate-resilient crops, watershed management, better forecasting

• Conclusion: Long-term resilience via integrated water management, climate-smart agriculture, and stronger institutional preparedness for food & water security