04 Apr THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION- OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES
THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION- OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES
This article covers ‘Daily current affairs’ and the topic details ’Demographic transition in India’ and its impact on the country and the challenges which it poses in the long run. This topic has relevance in the Society, social justice and Economy section of GS1, GS2 and GS3 of UPSC CSE exam.
Why in the news?
The UN population division estimates the population close to 1.7 billion by 2065 before it starts declining. It will also accompany a demographic transition which is going to provide various opportunities and challenges for the country which we must prepare for.
Recently, the LANCET report has highlighted India’s total fertility rate to decline to 1.29 by 2051. Though it is much higher than estimated by UN or NFHS surveys, but, it highlights interesting pictures about the population dynamics. This highlights our population will stabilize at the 1.7 billion mark much before 2065.
FACTORS RESPONSIBLE FOR DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION (DT)
Several factors have triggered DT in India:
Rapid economic growth– An important transition in the economic history of countries occurs when they move from a regime of low prosperity, high child mortality and high fertility to a state of high prosperity, low child mortality and low fertility. Same thing is happening in India.
Low infant and child mortality rates- reducing need for having a large family for old age support.
Rise in levels of women’s education and workforce participation- various studies had suggested an inverse relation between women’s education and fertility rates.
Late marriages- Combined with rising levels of education it leads to reduction in child bearing years and hence lower fertility rates.
Increase mobility- Increasing urbanization has led to higher numbers of people living in urban areas and hence change in patriarchal norms. Also, in urban areas couples prefer other aspects of life.
Impact of decline in fertility rate
The decline in TFR has manifold impact:
Fall in Dependency ratio- As new births have reduced so the number of dependent population also reduces. It also leads to a larger proportion of working adults in the economy boosting economic growth and surplus income, which can further invest in infrastructure, skill development and education.
Increase in Labor productivity
– Decline in population growth leads to increase in resources and infrastructure available in per capita terms.
-Reallocation of resources for skill development and education
-Increasing the proportion of the labor force in a population.
Enhancing educational outcomes- as the number of children enrollment in primary education reduces.
Positive intergenerational transfers- families allocating resources for children for better education and skill development.
Women empowerment- As women’s educational years increase, it leads to higher levels of literacy and financial independence. It also helps tackle the problem of various patriarchal barriers.
Challenges of declining fertility rate
Increase in dependency ratio in long term- while fall in TFR leads to initial surplus income but higher number of elderly population in the long term.
Labor force shortage- a declining workforce due to low TFR can lead to lower economic production. Industries may face shortage of skilled workforce, or increase in labor cost, acting as a disincentive for foreign investors.
Social support network- smaller families means less people for mentoring and caregiving and emotional support.
Better healthcare and social security network- aging population requires better healthcare facilities and social security which is major concern in India.
Economic Implications: A shrinking workforce affects tax revenues, social security contributions, and economic stability.
In this regard, policymakers have to take appropriate actions to reap the demographic dividend by focusing on social expenditures and building capabilities. Also recognizing the challenges in the future related to aging population and building a holistic approach should be the way forward.
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Prelims question
Consider the following statements:
1.India’s TFR has passed the replacement level.
2.The TFR in rural areas is lower than in urban areas.
3.There is a negative correlation between TFR and women’s level of education.
Which of these statements are correct.
1.Only 1
2.Only 2
3.Only 3
4.None
Answer 2
Mains question
Demographic transition in India presents it with a myriad of opportunities and challenges. Discuss.
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