THE S-W MONSOON- REPORT CARD and the need for IMD to improve its forecasting Models [GS I, Geography]

06 Oct THE S-W MONSOON- REPORT CARD and the need for IMD to improve its forecasting Models [GS I, Geography]

Posted at 06 Oct 2021 in Current Affairs by Rajeev Yadav 0 Comments

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SOUTH-WEST MONSOON– A monsoon is a seasonal reversal of winds accompanied by corresponding changes in rainfall and its pattern. Generally these winds enter India through its South-West direction, hence the name. The South-West Monsoon covers the time period from June to September in India.

REPORT CARD OF CURRENT MONSOON IN INDIA:-

Officially, the S-W monsoon has ended in India with 87.4 cm of rainfall between June and September, which is just 0.7% short of the of 88 cm of average rainfall.
Till August end, India had an all India monsoon rainfall deficit of 9% approx, as the monsoon rainfall was short by 24% in August month.

IMD FORECASTING:

India Meteorological Department (IMD) had earlier forecasted NORMAL rains but the August failure caused a little shortfall.
IMD forecasted strong rains in September with overall monsoon rainfall still NORMAL towards the lower end.
While September rainfall which was 35% more than the monthly normal covered the rain deficit and this result was well beyond the IMD’s expectations(i.e. From 17 cm to 22.9 cm).
In 2020, India received 109% of the long period average (LPA)
In 2019, 110% of the LPA

Rainfall Pattern this year–

Much of the rain was focused on southern India
N-E and Eastern India received below normal rainfall

But on the positive side– the base level of monsoon rains is higher in N-E India than the rest. Although its source of rain was retreating Monsoon there(October ).

Good rains in the last 2-3 years have resulted in a good buffer stock in Indian godowns and reservoirs.

The monsoon failed during sowing of the kharif crop in July and August and over this the excess rainfall in September rains damaged the existing crops also.

EXPECTATIONS:-

The Government’s Expectations:- 150.5 million tonnes until June 2022, slightly higher than the 149.56 million tonnes last year.
EXPECTATIONS OF SURPLUS PRODUCTION IN OILSEEDS, RICE, PULSES are there.
DEMAND BY FARMERS FOR A BETTER REMUNERATION may follow.
THE SURPLUS PRODUCTION MAY LEAD TO BOOST IN THE EXPORTS.

TO CONCLUDE:-

The IMD should continue to work on its models and patterns to increase the accuracy level in its predictions, it may also take some help from the west and their expertise among others. Furthermore, as Indian Agriculture is majorly dependent on S-W Monsoon, IMD should analyse how it can improve its models to forecast shortfall as well as excess in rains, alongwith the other atmosphere related phonomemons.