El Niño Alert: Farmers Warned Against Paddy Sowing in AP Districts

02 Sep El Niño Alert: Farmers Warned Against Paddy Sowing in AP Districts

✎ El Niño disrupts the Indian Summer Monsoon, leading to deficient rainfall and heightened water stress for paddy cultivation, necessitating adaptive agricultural practices and efficient water resource management.

Subject Relevance — Where This Topic Fits

• GS Paper III — Agriculture  |  GS Paper III — Environment and Disaster Management  |  GS Paper I — Geography
• Prelims: El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Paddy cultivation water requirements, Groundwater depletion, Crop water stress, Rainfall deficit, Kandaleru reservoir, Telugu Ganga canal, Pre Monsoon Dry Sowing (PMDS), Agricultural Technology Management Agency (ATMA), Soil health cards
• Essay: Climate change and its impact on agricultural sustainability, Water management in Indian agriculture: Challenges and solutions

Quick Revision: El Niño disrupts the Indian Summer Monsoon, leading to deficient rainfall and heightened water stress for paddy cultivation, necessitating adaptive agricultural practices and efficient water resource management.

Why is this in the news?

The Tirupati District Collector issued a cautionary advisory to farmers in Sullurpeta and Naidupeta areas against undertaking paddy cultivation due to an anticipated 32% rainfall deficit attributed to El Niño conditions. This advisory, delivered during the inauguration of the ‘Agri Expo and Kisan Mela’ organised by the Agricultural Technology Management Agency (ATMA), underscores the intersection of climate variability, water resource management, and agricultural policy in India’s rice-growing regions.

Background

• El Niño is a phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, characterised by anomalous warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, which disrupts global weather patterns, including the Indian monsoon.
• The Indian monsoon, a critical determinant of agricultural output, is particularly sensitive to El Niño events, with historical data indicating a correlation between strong El Niño years and deficient monsoon rainfall in India.
• Paddy cultivation is highly water-intensive, requiring approximately 3,000–5,000 litres of water per kilogram of rice produced, making it vulnerable to rainfall variability and groundwater depletion.
• The Kandaleru reservoir, a key water source in Andhra Pradesh, and the Telugu Ganga canal, which supplies irrigation water to parts of the state, are critical to agricultural operations but face seasonal constraints.
• Groundwater levels in many parts of India, including Andhra Pradesh, have been declining due to over-extraction, further exacerbating the vulnerability of rainfed and partially irrigated agriculture.
• The Agricultural Technology Management Agency (ATMA) is a decentralised institution under the National Mission on Agricultural Extension and Technology (NMAET), tasked with promoting sustainable agricultural practices and technology adoption at the district level.

What is El Niño and its impact on Indian agriculture?

• El Niño refers to the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon that originates in the tropical Pacific Ocean and influences global weather systems, including the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM).
• During El Niño years, the Walker circulation weakens, leading to reduced convective activity over the Indian Ocean and a subsequent decline in monsoon rainfall over India, often resulting in drought-like conditions in many regions.
• The Indian monsoon contributes approximately 75% of India’s annual rainfall, making it indispensable for kharif (monsoon) season crops such as paddy, pulses, and oilseeds.
• El Niño events are typically associated with a 10–30% reduction in monsoon rainfall, with severe episodes (e.g., 1982–83, 1997–98, 2015–16) causing widespread agricultural distress and water shortages.
• The impact of El Niño on agriculture is compounded by other climatic factors such as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), which can either mitigate or exacerbate its effects.
• Paddy cultivation, a staple in India’s agricultural economy, is particularly vulnerable to El Niño-induced rainfall deficits due to its high water requirements and sensitivity to water stress during critical growth stages.
• The Government of India monitors ENSO conditions through the India Meteorological Department (IMD), which issues seasonal rainfall forecasts and advisories to state governments and farmers.
• Adaptive agricultural strategies, such as crop diversification, water-efficient irrigation techniques (e.g., System of Rice Intensification), and the adoption of drought-resistant varieties, are essential to mitigate the impact of El Niño on food security.

Key Features

Feature	Significance
El Niño-induced rainfall deficit	Triggers a 32% shortfall in monsoon precipitation, directly impacting agricultural planning and water availability for kharif sowing.
Groundwater recharge and reservoir levels	Elevated groundwater levels and Kandaleru reservoir storage enabled a 62.5% increase in paddy cultivation area (from 32,000 to 52,000 hectares) despite forecasted deficits.
Telugu Ganga Canal water allocation	Limited to 10-12 tmc, insufficient for paddy in rainfed zones like Sullurpeta and Naidupeta, necessitating cautious crop selection.
Pre Monsoon Dry Sowing (PMDS)	A climate-resilient technique blending cereals, pulses, and oilseeds to enhance soil fertility and reduce water dependency during erratic monsoons.
High-end mechanisation and drones	Promoted to optimise resource use, reduce labour dependency, and improve precision in sowing and fertiliser application amid water constraints.

Why it Matters

Agricultural and Economic

• El Niño disrupts monsoon patterns, threatening food security by reducing kharif output, particularly paddy, which is water-intensive and staple to India’s food basket.
• Regional disparities in irrigation access (e.g., Sullurpeta and Naidupeta) exacerbate vulnerabilities, necessitating adaptive agricultural strategies.
• Increased paddy acreage (52,000 hectares) despite forecasts underscores the tension between short-term economic incentives and long-term climate risks.
• Mechanisation and precision farming mitigate labour shortages and enhance efficiency, but require capital investment and technical expertise.

Environmental and Hydrological

• Groundwater depletion remains a latent risk despite temporary recharge, as over-extraction for paddy cultivation could deplete aquifers irreversibly.
• Reservoir storage (e.g., Kandaleru) acts as a buffer, but its utility is constrained by upstream rainfall deficits and competing demands.
• El Niño events correlate with reduced soil moisture and increased evaporation, amplifying the need for drought-resistant crop varieties.

Policy and Governance

• District-level advisories (e.g., Collector’s warning) demonstrate decentralised climate adaptation, aligning local governance with meteorological forecasts.
• Integration of ATMA (Agricultural Technology Management Agency) in outreach highlights the role of institutional mechanisms in disseminating climate-smart practices.
• Soil health management (via PMDS and testing) aligns with the National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture (NMSA) goals, though implementation gaps persist.

Challenges

1. Climate variability and El Niño

• Forecasted 32% rainfall deficit disrupts kharif sowing calendars, particularly for paddy, which requires 1,200–1,500 mm of water per season.
• Erratic monsoons increase the unpredictability of crop yields, complicating input procurement and market planning for farmers.
• Delayed or insufficient rainfall exacerbates pest infestations (e.g., brown plant hopper in paddy), compounding yield losses.

UPSC Link: GS3: Climate Change and Agriculture

2. Water scarcity in rainfed zones

• Sullurpeta and Naidupeta lack assured irrigation, making them highly vulnerable to monsoon failures despite groundwater recharge.
• Over-reliance on groundwater for paddy cultivation risks aquifer depletion, threatening long-term agricultural sustainability.
• Limited canal water (10–12 tmc) cannot substitute for monsoon rainfall, necessitating crop diversification away from water-intensive varieties.

UPSC Link: GS3: Water Resources and Irrigation

3. Economic viability of alternative crops

• Transitioning from paddy to millets or pulses requires market linkages, price support, and farmer awareness to offset lower immediate returns.
• High initial costs of mechanisation and drones may deter small and marginal farmers, widening the adoption gap.
• Soil testing and precision farming demand technical training, which is unevenly distributed across rural India.

UPSC Link: GS3: Agricultural Marketing and Technology

4. Institutional coordination gaps

• Decentralised advisories (e.g., Collector’s warning) may not reach all farmers promptly, especially in remote or marginalised communities.
• ATMA’s role in disseminating PMDS and mechanisation is commendable but requires scaling to cover all vulnerable districts.
• Inter-departmental coordination between agriculture, water resources, and meteorological agencies remains ad hoc, lacking a unified climate adaptation framework.

UPSC Link: GS2: Governance and Decentralisation

5. Farmer livelihood risks

• Risk-averse farmers may prioritise short-term gains (e.g., paddy) over long-term sustainability, exacerbating debt cycles in case of crop failure.
• Lack of crop insurance penetration in rainfed zones leaves farmers exposed to financial shocks from climate anomalies.
• Delayed monsoon onset disrupts labour availability, as agricultural wages rise due to competition for scarce work opportunities.

UPSC Link: GS3: Farmer Suicides and Rural Economy

Challenges — UPSC Perspective

Issue	Concern
El Niño-induced rainfall deficit	32% shortfall disrupts kharif sowing, particularly for paddy, threatening food security.
Groundwater over-extraction	Increased paddy acreage risks aquifer depletion, especially in rainfed zones with limited canal irrigation.
Market linkages for alternative crops	Transitioning to millets/pulses requires price support and infrastructure to ensure economic viability.
Farmer awareness and training	Adoption of PMDS, drones, and soil testing is uneven due to technical and financial barriers.
Institutional coordination	Decentralised advisories and ATMA outreach need scaling to cover all vulnerable districts uniformly.

Government Initiatives — Must-Memorise for Prelims

• National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture (NMSA)
• Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchayee Yojana (PMKSY)
• Soil Health Card Scheme

Way Forward

• Promote climate-resilient crop varieties (e.g., drought-tolerant paddy, millets) through seed subsidy schemes and farmer cooperatives.
• Expand micro-irrigation (drip/sprinkler) coverage in rainfed zones to reduce water dependency and enhance efficiency.
• Strengthen ATMA’s outreach by integrating digital platforms (e.g., Kisan Portals) for real-time advisories and training modules.
• Enhance crop insurance penetration (PMFBY) in vulnerable districts, with simplified claim processes and premium subsidies.
• Invest in groundwater recharge structures (e.g., farm ponds, check dams) to augment storage during surplus years.
• Facilitate farmer collectives for bulk procurement of inputs (seeds, fertilisers) and collective marketing of alternative crops.
• Integrate meteorological data with agricultural planning via AI-driven decision support systems for district-level advisories.

UPSC Value Addition

Prelims Practice Questions

Q1. Consider the following statements regarding the El Niño phenomenon:
1. El Niño is associated with the warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
2. El Niño events typically lead to increased rainfall in India during the monsoon season.
3. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) issues El Niño advisories to state governments for agricultural planning.

How many of the above statements are correct?

1. Only one
2. Only two
3. All three
4. None

Answer: Only one — Statement 1 is correct as El Niño involves anomalous warming of the Pacific Ocean. Statement 2 is incorrect because El Niño is linked to reduced monsoon rainfall in India. Statement 3 is correct as IMD provides climate advisories, including El Niño impacts.

Q2. Assertion (A): The Pre Monsoon Dry Sowing (PMDS) technique involves sowing a mixture of 15-20 seeds comprising cereals, pulses, and oilseeds to improve soil fertility.

Reason (R): PMDS reduces the dependency on monsoon rainfall by ensuring early germination and root establishment before the onset of rains.

In the context of the above two statements, which one of the following is correct?

1. Both A and R are true, and R is the correct explanation of A.
2. Both A and R are true, but R is not the correct explanation of A.
3. A is true, but R is false.
4. A is false, but R is true.

Answer: Both A and R are true, and R is the correct explanation of A. — Assertion (A) correctly describes the composition of seeds in PMDS. Reason (R) accurately explains the purpose of PMDS in reducing rainfall dependency.

Q3. Match the following agricultural practices with their respective objectives:

Column I (Practice)
A. Pre Monsoon Dry Sowing (PMDS)
B. Soil testing
C. Drip irrigation
D. Mechanised sowing

Column II (Objective)
1. Enhancing soil nutrient assessment
2. Reducing water usage and improving efficiency
3. Early germination and root establishment
4. Reducing drudgery and improving precision

Select the correct match:

1. A-3, B-1, C-2, D-4
2. A-1, B-3, C-4, D-2
3. A-2, B-4, C-1, D-3
4. A-4, B-2, C-3, D-1

Answer: A-3, B-1, C-2, D-4 — A matches with 3 (PMDS aims for early germination), B with 1 (soil testing assesses nutrients), C with 2 (drip irrigation reduces water usage), and D with 4 (mechanised sowing improves precision).

Mains Practice Question

✍ The El Niño phenomenon poses significant challenges to India’s agricultural sector, particularly in rain-fed regions. Critically examine the institutional and policy measures required to mitigate its adverse impacts on food security and farmer livelihoods. (15 Marks)

Approach: MODEL-ANSWER SKELETON:

1. **Introduction (2 marks)**: Define El Niño and its impact on monsoon variability in India, citing IMD data on rainfall deficits (e.g., 32% deficit in 2026 as per the news). Highlight the vulnerability of rain-fed agriculture.

2. **Institutional Measures (5 marks)**:
– Role of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) in issuing seasonal forecasts and advisories.
– Functioning of the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) for short-term forecasts.
– State-level Agricultural Technology Management Agencies (ATMA) for disseminating climate-smart agricultural practices (e.g., PMDS, soil testing).
– District Collectors’ role in issuing advisories (as seen in Tirupati district) and coordinating with local agencies.

3. **Policy Measures (5 marks)**:
– National Water Policy 2020: Emphasis on water conservation, groundwater regulation, and promotion of drought-resistant crops.
– Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchayee Yojana (PMKSY): Integration of micro-irrigation (e.g., drip irrigation) for water efficiency.
– Crop Diversification: Promotion of millets, pulses, and oilseeds to reduce dependency on water-intensive crops like paddy.
– Subsidies and insurance schemes (PMFBY) to offset climate-induced losses.

4. **Challenges and Way Forward (3 marks)**:
– Limitations in ground-level implementation (e.g., lack of assured irrigation in regions like Sullurpeta).
– Need for farmer awareness campaigns and capacity-building.
– Strengthening of early warning systems and real-time monitoring.

Balance of views: Cite contrasting perspectives on the effectiveness of institutional measures (e.g., success of IMD forecasts vs. ground-level adoption gaps).

Source: The Hindu

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